Special Issue-2020

OPEN DEFECATION IN ETHIOPIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH (142052)

DOI :

Abstract : Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Ethiopia from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests indicate that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Ethiopia is likely to decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from as high as 19% to as low as 5.69% of the total population. In order to sustainably maintain this desirable downwards trend, the study suggested a three-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the Ethiopian government.

Pages : 18-30

Downloads : 1

Publication Date :

Modified Date : 2020-07-15

Cite/Export :

Dr. Smartson. P. Nyoni , Mr. Thabani Nyoni , "OPEN DEFECATION IN ETHIOPIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH", IJIERT - International Journal of Innovations in Engineering Research and Technology, Special Issue-2020, ISSN : 2394-3696, Page No. 18-30