Special Issue-2020

OPEN DEFECATION IN ERITREA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH (142054)

DOI :

Abstract : Most people who live in Eritrea defecate in the open. In fact, open defecation is far more common in rural Eritrea than in urban Eritrea. Given that most people in Eritrea live in rural areas, it leaves a lot to be desired, especially from a public health perspective. Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Eritrea from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2017 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODR series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are stationary in levels and also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Eritrea is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 66% to almost 62% of the total population. Indeed, open defecation is still very high in Eritrea. The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the Eritrean government.

Pages : 37-50

Downloads : 1

Publication Date :

Modified Date : 2020-07-15

Cite/Export :

Dr. Smartson. P. Nyoni , Mr. Thabani Nyoni , "OPEN DEFECATION IN ERITREA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH", IJIERT - International Journal of Innovations in Engineering Research and Technology, Special Issue-2020, ISSN : 2394-3696, Page No. 37-50